The Future of Electricity
One of the greatest technological achievements of the 20th century was the creation in the U.S. of an electric power system – spanning power generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use applications – that enabled countless technical and economic advances and enhancements to the quality of life. By the end of the century, however, a variety of circumstances were combining to challenge the ability of the electric power system to continue meeting the needs of American society. These challenges included the digital revolution and the proliferation of electronic devices requiring higher levels of power quality, growing evidence that traditional ways of generating electricity may contribute to climate change, and new concerns about the vulnerability of the power system to terrorism and natural disasters. In short, both the needs of consumers for electricity and the environmental context of electricity use were changing.
If recent history is any guide; the pace of change in society, technology, and consumer needs is unlikely to slow down. This, in turn, means that the electric power system itself needs to change and grow to meet the emerging demands of the 21st century.
The purpose of the Galvin Electricity Initiative is to define the electric power system that will most perfectly meet the evolving needs of consumers in the 21st century, as well as the technological innovations that will be required to make this system a reality. To provide a firm foundation for this effort, the first task of the Initiative was to develop a rich set of scenarios – or alternate visions – of how the U.S. might evolve socially and economically between now and 2025, how this evolution will affect the fundamental needs and aspirations of Americans, and how these needs and aspirations will affect requirements on the electric energy supply and service system. The Forecasting the Future of Electricity report summarizes the results of this task.
